Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Brexit Again

My thoughts on how the Brexit situation may play out:

  1. The Conservative party picks a new prime minister in 3 months.
  2. Meanwhile, the pound and UK stocks go down.
  3. A motion to trigger article 50 of the EU for exit is tabled in Parliament.  It is important enough to be considered a motion of confidence.
  4. The motion fails because the new PM cannot clearly specify what will happen if UK exits.
  5. A general election is called.  Stocks go down some more due to uncertainty.
  6. The Conservatives win a majority of about the same size as current majority, but half of the MPs elected favor staying in the EU.  Labour party is minority but all of their MPs favor staying.
  7. Motion to trigger exit again fails in Parliament.
  8. New referendum is called and Remain wins.
  9. Britain stays in EU.
Who knows if this will happen, but it is certainly feasible.

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